New home building in the US skyrocketted, by almost 17%, last month however this is after an almost equally sharp drop in November, according to Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
Reasonably clement weather in the densely-populated US northeast last week allowed for quite robust construction activity, providing softwood lumber sellers the opportunity to hold prices mostly flat. Sudden winterly weather hit the west coast, meanwhile, absolutely stopping transportation and major outside activity for two days. As usual, within a few days the rain started and melted a lot of the snow pretty fast.
In week ending January 17, 2020, benchmark North American construction framing lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir KD 2x4 #2&Btr (RL) prices averaged $402 mfbm, unchanged from the previous week. This week's price is +$4, or +1%, more than it was one month ago. Compared to one year ago, this price is up +$64, or +19%.
Eastern stocking wholesalers described an unusual week in their neck of the woods. Weather remained surprisingly good as did resultant construction and lumber sales activity, but prices were slow to get moving upward. Trucking equipment was scarce as recent decent weather in the US Northeast increased shipping of all building materials around the region.
Sales activity may have settled down a bit from the previous week’s flurry, but traders of Kiln-Dried Douglas-fir lumber and studs continued to sell every day with confidence. The pace of business took a small step back in dimension products, but studs were again undersupplied, attractively-priced, and in high demand.
Compared to historical trend, last week's WSPF 2x4 #2&Btr price rose still further, up by another +$28, or +7.5%, relative to the 1-year rolling average price of $374 mfbm, but are down -$33, or -7.5%, relative to the 2-year rolling average price of $435 mfbm. This week's price is up +$27, or +7% relative to the 5-year rolling average price of $375 mfbm.
The below table is a comparison of recent highs, in June 2018, and current January 2020 benchmark dimension softwood lumber 2x4 prices compared to historical highs of 2004/05 and compared to recent lows of Sept 2015:
