Lumber prices rose from late-2025 lows, but duty deposits and reduced operating days continued to pressure liquidity and volumes.

Schnittholz

Conifex expects softwood lumber conditions to stay challenging in 2026

Conifex expects softwood lumber conditions to stay challenging in 2026

Bild: Depositphotos

Conifex reported first-quarter sales of $21.8 million, EBITDA of negative $7.7 million, and a net loss of $9.4 million, as lumber production totaled 21.7 MMfbm and shipments 21.5 MMfbm, while the power plant sold 36.7 GWh of electricity, or about 66% of targeted operating rates. 

Lumber production totaled 21.7 MMfbm, down from 27.8 MMfbm in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 46.3 MMfbm in the first quarter of 2025. The company said this represented operating rates of about 36% of annualized capacity, and production was affected by fewer operating days as operations moved from an extended single-shift period to a two-shift configuration in early February.

Shipments of Conifex-produced lumber totaled 21.5 MMfbm, down from 24.2 MMfbm in the previous quarter and 38.0 MMfbm a year earlier. Lumber revenue was $15.0 million, down 5% from the fourth quarter of 2025 and down 52% from the first quarter of 2025, with the company attributing the sequential decline to fewer shipments that were partly offset by higher realizations and the year-over-year decline to lower volumes, lower realizations, and higher duty and tariff rates.

The power plant sold 36.7 GWh of electricity, down from 55.3 GWh in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 47.6 GWh in the first quarter of 2025, after an operational upset in early January led to an unplanned outage of about 30 days. Bioenergy revenue was $5.2 million, down from $8.6 million in the previous quarter and $7.0 million a year earlier.

Lumber pricing improved from late-2025 lows during the quarter, with the average WSPF 2x4 #2 and Better price at $463, up from $422 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and down from $492 a year earlier. The Canadian-dollar equivalent averaged $635, up from $589 in the previous quarter and down from $706 a year earlier, with the average exchange rate at $0.729 per Canadian dollar.

Conifex expensed $3.0 million of countervailing and anti-dumping duty deposits in the quarter, versus $6.0 million in the previous quarter and $2.8 million a year earlier, and said cumulative duty deposits paid since April 2017 totaled US$46.0 million, net of certain prior sales of such deposits. The U.S. Department of Commerce released preliminary seventh administrative review rates of 10.66% for antidumping duties and 14.17% for countervailing duties on April 9, 2026, a move from prevailing rates of 20.53% and 14.63%, and Conifex said it would recognize a non-cash export expense of US$5.7 million (C$7.82 million), plus interest of about US$0.77 million (C$1.05 million), if final rates mirrored the preliminary determination.

Conifex said market conditions for Canadian softwood lumber producers were expected to remain challenging through the remainder of 2026, shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, evolving U.S. housing demand, and ongoing trade dynamics. It said lumber price volatility was likely to persist as supply adjusted, and it said further supply rationalization could be required if demand recovery was slower than anticipated.

Company said its subsidiary entered into a $19 million secured term loan with the Business Development Bank of Canada under the Softwood Lumber Guarantee Program, maturing July 15, 2033, and interest-only until August 2028, with proceeds intended to support working capital and operations. It also said it would temporarily curtail sawmill operations at the Mackenzie mill for about seven weeks starting May 19, 2026, with a target restart in July 2026, to manage inventory levels and preserve liquidity in challenging market conditions.