The United States continues to rely on imported softwood lumber to meet housing and remodeling demand, as domestic production remains insufficient, according to research by O’Kelly Acumen and Global Wood Trends. The country accounts for roughly 27% of global softwood lumber demand but only 20% of global supply, creating a structural deficit that imports must fill.
Imports have consistently supplied between 25% and 33% of total US consumption over the past fifty years. Canada provides about 80% of these imports and is projected to cover more than 22% of total US lumber needs in 2025. When European shipments are included, nearly 30% of the country’s requirements will come from foreign producers.
The report finds that replacing the about 25 million m3 of imported lumber currently entering the US each year would require building around 75 new, modern sawmills. This expansion would demand capital investment exceeding 12x the total US sawmill investment over the past fifteen years and would take more than a decade to complete under ideal conditions cited in the report.
Production constraints include limited timber availability in several regions, labor shortages, and delays in permitting and infrastructure. While sawmill investment is growing in the US South due to favorable timber supply and costs, expansion is expected to remain slow during 2025–2027.
Lumber demand, which declined in 2022, remains uncertain under high interest rates and housing affordability pressures. A long-term housing deficit is expected to support renewed growth in housing starts during 2027–2030.
New US import tariffs scheduled for October 2025 are expected to reduce Canadian shipments and increase US lumber prices over time, according to the report. Canadian harvest volumes, particularly in British Columbia, have already declined since 2016. European shipments are increasing but remain insufficient to fully offset Canada’s decline.
The report states that proposals to increase logging on federal lands would not significantly reduce import dependence without matching investment in sawmills, infrastructure, and workforce development.
The report concludes that the structural mismatch between US lumber demand and domestic supply will persist for the foreseeable future. Even aggressive domestic investment cannot close the gap quickly or economically enough to eliminate reliance on imports. Canada and Europe will continue to be essential suppliers to the US housing market through 2030.
