U.S. GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the worst quarter since the pandemic downturn in Q2 2020. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 6.9%.
Bild: BEA
The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment increased.
The decrease in private inventory investment was led by decreases in wholesale trade (mainly motor vehicles) and retail trade (notably, "other" retailers and motor vehicle dealers). Within exports, widespread decreases in nondurable goods were partly offset by an increase in "other" business services (mainly financial services). The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in defense spending on intermediate goods and services. The increase in imports was led by increases in durable goods (notably, nonfood and nonautomotive consumer goods).
The increase in PCE reflected an increase in services (led by health care) that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within goods, a decrease in nondurable goods (led by gasoline and other energy goods) was partly offset by an increase in durable goods (led by motor vehicles and parts). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in equipment and intellectual property products.
The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 26, 2022
