The U.S. Lumber Coalition (USLC) responded strongly to a recent Wall Street Journal editorial criticizing tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber and their potential impact on disaster recovery. The editorial argues that the U.S. relies on imports for one-third of its softwood lumber and claimed that tariffs increase costs for builders and consumers, particularly during recovery efforts in regions like Los Angeles and North Carolina. However, the USLC challenged these assertions, citing significant domestic production growth and the minimal role of lumber costs in homebuilding expenses.
The Coalition states that U.S. mills have added 8 billion board feet of production capacity since 2016 and produced 30 billion additional board feet of softwood lumber, more than compensating for the decline in Canadian imports attributed to tariffs. The Coalition emphasized that U.S. trade laws ensure fair competition by addressing subsidies and dumping by Canadian producers, which it says harm American jobs and communities.
The Wall Street Journal claimed that lumber prices have risen by 35% over five years, contributing to higher housing costs and complicating disaster recovery. In contrast, the Coalition noted that softwood lumber prices increased by only 9% between 2019 and December 2024, while the median price of new homes rose by 32%. The USLC highlighted that lumber accounts for just 1.3% of the total cost of a new home, making it unlikely to significantly impact housing affordability.
While the coalition asserts that tariffs have no adverse impact on housing construction, other experts offer contrasting analyses. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), tariffs suggested by President-elect Donald Trump, including a 25% tariff on USMCA partners like Canada and Mexico, could significantly disrupt the wood product sector. This would impact trade valued at $50 billion in 2023. Canada, a major supplier of U.S. wood imports, accounts for 50% of these imports, with China and non-FTA partners contributing 13% and 36%, respectively. Tariffs under Trump’s plan would increase duties on Canadian imports from near-zero to 25%, while Chinese imports could see a 43.8 percentage point rise to 60%, significantly increasing costs for U.S. builders and consumers.
Rajan Parajuli, an associate professor of forest economics and policy at NC State University, noted that Canada exported 28.1 million m3 of softwood lumber to the U.S. in 2023, primarily for residential and commercial construction. He emphasized that Trump’s proposed tariffs would require U.S. companies to pay an additional 25% tax on 25% tax on Canadian softwood lumber imports, potentially increasing domestic lumber prices as companies adjust to higher import costs.
Canada also anticipates severe economic consequences from such tariffs. The B.C. Ministry of Finance projects that Trump’s proposed tariff could lead to a cumulative economic loss of $69 billion over four years for British Columbia alone, with real GDP potentially declining by 0.6% annually in 2025 and 2026. Job losses, reduced revenue, and higher unemployment rates, rising to 6.7% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026, were among the predicted consequences.
USLC Chairman Andrew Miller dismissed claims that tariffs harm disaster recovery efforts, asserting that they strengthen domestic supply chains and support American jobs. He criticized Canada’s practices of overproducing and dumping lumber into the U.S. market, urging fair trade measures instead. Miller also highlighted that the costs of lumber have minimal impact on new home prices and that other factors, such as rising builder profits and labor costs, are driving price increases.
