The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts a 9% increase in residential property sales across Canada in 2025, projecting 532,704 units sold, while the national average home price is expected to climb by 5% to $722,221. CREA’s projections extend into 2026, with a further 4.5% sales increase to 556,662 units and a 3% rise in the average price, reaching $746,379. These updated forecasts reflect stronger-than-expected market activity observed in late 2024, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
The upward revisions are driven by pent-up demand, lower borrowing costs, and a projected surge in spring listings. CREA anticipates continued support from stable interest rates, with the Bank of Canada expected to maintain current levels, further encouraging market activity.
Sales growth in 2025 is expected to vary by region. British Columbia leads with a projected 14% increase to 85,062 units, followed by Ontario with a 10% rise to 199,693 units. Quebec anticipates a 9% increase to 98,502 units, while Alberta and Saskatchewan expect smaller growth of 2% and 3%, reaching 85,435 and 16,710 units, respectively. Image: Canadian Real Estate Association
In 2026, Ontario is forecast to see a further 6% increase to 210,875 units, while British Columbia is projected to rise by 4% to 88,276 units. Alberta and Quebec expect moderate sales growth of 2% and 5%, reaching 87,343 and 103,578 units, respectively. Image: Canadian Real Estate Association
Average home prices are also expected to rise across Canada through 2026. Alberta is forecast to lead price increases with an 8% rise in 2025, reaching $534,861, followed by a similar 8% increase to $578,115 in 2026. Quebec expects price growth of 8% in 2025 to $566,620 and a smaller rise of 3% to $581,456 in 2026. Ontario’s average price is forecast to grow by 2% in both years, reaching $881,039 in 2025 and $902,756 in 2026. British Columbia, already the highest-priced market, is expected to reach $1,001,871 in 2025, followed by a further 2% rise to $1,025,670 in 2026.
CREA emphasizes regional variations, with British Columbia and Ontario's sales driven by current low sales and greater inventory, while Alberta and Saskatchewan expect price growth due to limited supply and ongoing demand. Manitoba, Quebec, and Atlantic provinces are expected to see moderate growth in both sales and prices through 2026.
While positive factors like lower borrowing costs and pent-up demand drive the forecast, CREA cautions about potential economic risks, including a possible trade conflict with the United States, which could affect the Canadian economy in the coming years.
