The home sales in Canada edged down by 0.7% in July, reflecting the current trend of stabilization after a period of heightened activity earlier this year. Notably, this month's actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity stands at an impressive 8.7% above July 2022 figures, accroding to the statistics of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
Newly listed properties experienced a healthy 5.6% uptick in July, contributing to a balanced market landscape. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) observed a modest 1.1% increase on a month-over-month basis, showing a commendable recovery while maintaining a slight 1.5% decline year-over-year.
Although the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) experienced a decline, more than half of all local markets reported an upswing in sales for July. This delicate balance between regions resulted in a fractional negative shift in the national figures. While Montreal, Edmonton, and Calgary contributed to gains, a dip in sales occurred in the Fraser Valley.
Highlighting a substantial year-over-year surge, the actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in July 2023 marked an 8.7% increase compared to the same period in 2022. This robust growth is the most significant year-over-year national sales increase in over two years.
Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA, underscored the market's evolution, stating, "July continued along the same trend we've seen emerge in recent months, with sales leveling off and new listings returning in more normal numbers. This has been giving buyers more choice and balancing the market, which as of July was also slowing the rate of price growth."
Shaun Cathcart, CREA's Senior Economist, highlighted the influence of the Bank of Canada's mid-July rate hike and inflation messaging on the market. Cathcart noted, "Sales and price growth are already showing signs of tapering off further in August in response to the Bank of Canada's mid-July rate hike and messaging regarding above-target inflation for longer than previously expected."
The market's inventory dynamics showcased a measured shift, with 3.2 months of inventory at the end of July 2023—an increase from the preceding months. This change, while notable, remains below the long-term average, indicating the market's resilience in adapting to evolving conditions.
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) exhibited a larger-than-normal 1.1% month-over-month increase in July 2023. This increase reflects a harmonious balance between sales and new listings, leading to the measured uptick in prices.
Despite this month's marginal gain on a national scale, local markets continued to experience incremental price growth. The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI now stands at a mere 1.5% below year-ago levels, marking the smallest decline in nearly a year.
July 2023 concluded with the actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price reaching $668,754—a commendable 6.3% increase from the same period in 2022. As the market continues its nuanced dance between supply and demand, it remains to be seen how upcoming months will unfold. For those seeking insights and guidance in the real estate realm, contacting a local REALTOR® is advised.
