Graphic Packaging's adjusted EBITDA falls 23% on consumer affordability and competitive pressure

Packaging

Graphic Packaging's FY 2025 sales decrease by 2% to $8.6 billion

Graphic Packaging"s FY 2025 sales decrease by 2% to $8.6 billion

Image: Graphic Packaging Holding Company

Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported Adjusted EBITDA of $311 million for the Q4 ended December 31, 2025, a 23% decrease from $404 million in the same period last year, due to lower packaging price and volume, along with higher commodity and non-commodity costs.

Net sales for the Q4 2025 were essentially flat at $2.10 billion. Net income was $71 million, or $0.24 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $85 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, compared to $179 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The $93 million decline in quarterly Adjusted EBITDA was driven by lower packaging price and volume, increased costs, and negative net performance from production curtailments to reduce inventory. These headwinds were partially offset by an $8 million favorable foreign exchange impact and $56 million in innovation sales growth.

For the full year, net sales decreased by 2% to $8.62 billion. The decline was driven by a $150 million negative impact from the 2024 divestiture of the Augusta, Georgia facility and related bleached paperboard declines, as well as a $97 million net decline in sales from packaging operations, where price declined approximately 1%.

Full-year Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 17% to $1.40 billion from $1.68 billion in 2024. The $287 million decline was driven primarily by lower packaging price and volume-related issues, commodity and non-commodity costs, and the 2024 divestiture impact. Adjusted net income for the year was $539 million, or $1.80 per diluted share.

The company has initiated a comprehensive review of its organization, operations, footprint, and a selective portfolio review to focus resources on creating shareholder value.

For 2026, the company expects net sales in the range of $8.4 billion to $8.6 billion, Adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion, and Adjusted EPS of $0.75 to $1.15. The decline in expected Adjusted EBITDA reflects a $130 million negative impact from inventory reduction actions and an approximately $100 million non-cash accrual for a return to normal incentive compensation. The company continues to expect 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $700 to $800 million and capital spending of approximately $450 million.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, designs and produces consumer packaging made primarily from renewable or recycled materials.