Continuing flat, as last month, US softwood lumber production volume for January - September 2019 was 26,616 mmfbm. Also like last month, softwood lumber production in Canada continued big drops since the beginning of this year, once more falling -11%, to 18,608 mmfbm, compared to the first nine months of 2018 when it was 20,889 mmfbm, according to the Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
US sawmill production as per cent of practical capacity for the first nine months of 2019 dropped quite a bit compared to the same time in 2018; at 83%, from 86% in 2018, said the latest Western Wood Products Association’s monthly Lumber Track. For January-September 2019, Canadian sawmill production as per cent of practical capacity kept falling off a cliff, to land at 80% from 89% the previous year.
The price of benchmark lumber commodity Western Spruce-Pine-Fir KD 2x4 #2&Btr last week was unchanged from the week before, still at $394 mfbm (net FOB sawmill; cash price, or “print”).
Compared to historical trend, last week's WSPF 2x4 #2&Btr price rose further over last week’s gains, up by another +$25, or +7%, relative to the 1-year rolling average price of $369 mfbm, and is down -$44, or -10%, relative to the 2-year rolling average price of $438 mfbm.
Sawmill order files were basically to the end of the year; even as shipment times were exacerbated by deepening winter weather and the recently-resolved CN Rail strike.
The below table is a comparison of recent highs, in June 2018, and current December 2019 benchmark dimension softwood lumber 2x4 prices compared to historical highs of 2004/05 and compared to recent lows of Sept 2015:
