In a time when literally no one knows what is happening with the North American construction framing dimension softwood lumber market - let alone what will happen to the end of 2019 - the price of most lumber items moderated downward over last month. For its part, benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir KD 2x4 #2&Btr actually gained over last week, up by +$2 to $370 mfbm, but did drop -$12 from one-month ago when it was $382 mfbm, said Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
Last week’s gathering of Canadian and US lumber traders at the annual North American Wholesale Lumbermen’s Association (NAWLA), in San Antonio, TX, was extremely well-attended by enthusiastic participants from sawmills and wholesalers alike. Even after all the information sessions and networking, industry insiders started this week no less confused by the lumber market than they have been since Labour Day.
As if the relatively wide swings in lumber prices at a usually muted time of year weren’t enough, further drama is unfolding this week with the softwood lumber dispute in Washington, DC. Currently the US International Trade Commission (ITC) is seeking public comments on any perceived subsidies on US softwood lumber imports. Last week Western Spruce-Pine-Fir KD 2x4 #2&Btr rose +$2 to close at $370 mfbm. Last week's price is -$12 less than it was one month ago. However compared to one year ago, this price is up +$14, or almost +4%, when it was $356 mfbm.
Compared to historical trend, last week's WSPF 2x4 #2&Btr price continues increases from last week, up another +$8, or more than +2%, relative to the 1-year rolling average price of $362 mfbm, and is down -$75, or -17%, relative to the 2-year rolling average price of $445 mfbm.
After a quiet Monday the previous week, sellers of Kiln-Dried Douglas-fir commodities reported last week a noticeable groundswell of demand which resulted in higher sales volumes. Business only got better as the week wore on. Buyers repeatedly returned to the table, sensing a strengthening trend of the market so finally filled gaping holes in their inventories. Sawmills in the Pacific NorthWest pushed their order files on dimension items into the month of November, while production times for studs were still roughly at a week out.
The below table is a comparison of recent highs, in June 2018, and current October 2019 benchmark dimension softwood lumber 2x4 prices compared to historical highs of 2004/05 and compared to recent lows of Sept 2015:
