Despite the ongoing decline in construction activity in Russia, domestic demand for lumber increased in July. According to Lesprom Network estimates, the volume of apparent lumber consumption in the country rose by 16% in July compared to the same period last year, while construction decreased by 14%.
Prices for key lumber categories in July remained at the previous month’s level, though on a year-over-year basis, they rose by 3%. In August, a slight price decline was observed, and Lesprom Network forecasts that prices will remain stable in September, with a downward correction expected at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
On export markets, Russian exporters faced mixed dynamics. In July, the volume of lumber exports from Russia increased by 18% compared to June, but shipments were 13% lower than a year earlier. China remains a key destination for Russian suppliers, but Russian exporters are facing growing competition from Belarusian companies offering lower prices.
The situation for Russian exporters is further complicated by a general decrease in China’s lumber purchases due to the ongoing crisis in its construction sector — in July, investment in the country’s construction sector fell by 17% year-over-year. Prices for imported lumber in China are also declining.
Lumber exports from Russia to Japan remain weak: shipment volumes dropped by 19% year-over-year. This is attributed to both an increase in domestic lumber production in Japan and a decline in construction activity. In July, Russian spruce lumber prices rose in Japan, but in August, the trend reversed, and further price declines are expected through October. Prices for pine lumber, on the other hand, partially recovered in August, though a new wave of price decreases is forecasted for September.
In Kazakhstan, July marked the first decline in construction activity in six months. Prices for Russian softwood lumber in Kazakhstan are decreasing but still remain higher than a year ago. According to Lesprom Network forecasts, Russian softwood lumber will continue to fall in price in September, while prices for hardwood lumber will remain stable.
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