Softwood markets across Latin America and the Asia‑Pacific are approaching a turning point as harvests in key exporting regions are expected to decline while China remains structurally dependent on imports, a combination likely to tighten the regional supply balance and support higher softwood log prices through 2035, Global Wood Trends and O'Kelly Acumen said in a report.
Latin America remains a highly competitive source of softwood roundwood. Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Uruguay account for nearly all regional softwood supply, which currently totals about 95 million cubic meters a year. Producers benefit from relatively low forestry and transport costs, keeping log prices generally below global averages. Softwood plantation development has been limited as investment shifted toward faster‑growing hardwoods such as eucalyptus, but advances in genetics, forest management, harvesting and logistics have allowed softwood production to grow faster than the planted area. The authors expect a modest increase in regional supply by 2035, accompanied by moderate real price growth.
Oceania is showing contrasting trends between New Zealand and Australia. New Zealand's harvest expanded as plantations matured, but the age structure of those forests means harvests are forecast to decline through the mid‑2030s. Australia supplies a larger share of its domestic market and its harvest is expected to increase gradually. Taken together, Oceania’s softwood supply may fall by about three million cubic meters by 2035.
China has a substantial plantation resource but domestic softwood supply is expected to remain broadly stable. Investment in China has increasingly favoured hardwoods, leaving the country dependent on imported softwood logs, particularly from New Zealand. Although greater self‑sufficiency and weaker construction demand have reduced import requirements, imports will remain structurally important. Japan’s softwood harvest is near a peak as post‑war plantations reach maturity; production and utilisation are already high and output is expected to decline after the current surge.
Lower supply from Oceania, stable Chinese production and declining Japanese harvests are likely to tighten the regional market and support higher softwood log prices through 2035. That tightening creates new risks and opportunities for producers, investors, traders and wood consumers.