International Paper Co. warned that its first-quarter earnings, before items, will fall short of analysts' expectations because of uncertainty about a war with Iraq, higher energy costs and extreme weather conditions in the Southern U.S. The paper and forest-products company said it expects earnings before items to be comparable with its profit, before items, of 12 cents a share a year earlier. Analysts had forecast earnings of 20 cents a share for the current quarter. Net income for last year's first quarter was $65 million, or 13 cents a share. International Paper, based in Stamford, Conn., said higher-than-expected energy costs, bad weather and weakening demand hurt operating earnings in the first quarter, which typically is seasonally weak.